Downward pressure on Deutsche Bank
Over the past month, Deutsche Bank has been experiencing pressure on multiple fronts pertaining to capital structure and governmental fines. The US Department of Justice proposed a $14 billion fine over the handling of mortgage securities (Strasburg). The bank has said it does not have any intentions of paying this fine of $14 billion, but they are in talks with the justice department on the correct fine amount. Sources within the financial media believe DB have negotiated the settlement lower to $5.4 billion (Strasburg). This speculation has many analysts and pundits predicting the collapse of Deutsche Bank, because of the comparison to Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Credit spreads have started to widen on Deutsche Bank CDS to 2.5% compared to normal spreads around 1-1.25% (Cheng).
While the negative news has created a stir within European financial markets, Deutsche Bank (DB) should be able to deal with short term liquidity concerns. Regulations in the United States and Europe have created stringent liquidity requirements to mitigate risks by commercial banks. According to 2nd quarter financial statements, DB has €223 billion in short term reserves (Deutsche Bank). Prior to the financial collapse of 08-09, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers had limited short term liquidity coupled with major default on long term securities (Cheng). Although some of the data is dated, we believeDeutsche Bank has the ability to weather a storm by the Department of Justice, shareholders, and account holders.
Risks in Higher Education
It has been close to a month since the fallout from ITT Tech shutting its doors. The closure of ITT Tech left over 35,000 students in a bind to finish their education (Nisiripour). For many years, this institute for higher education has given a black eye to this industry because of its lack of accreditation and pressuring tactics for students to enroll (Nisiripour). The Department of Education barred ITT Tech from allowing new students to use federal loans, which made the school unable to support continuing operations (Nisiripour). The business practices by this one educational institute seems to have created a negative opinion on the education industry.
Along the line of economic ramifications this has in the United States, the arguments on the use of student loans has opened more speculation into an education bubble. Currently, there is roughly $1.26 trillion in student loan debt with the majority held by Sallie May (Elverly). Delinquency rates have started to creep up over time close to 11.6% as of 2016 (Elverly). On average people who attend schools like ITT Tech carry a higher amount of student loans at $39,950 (Elverly). Although student who take on this debt are unable to remove this burden from bankruptcy, it does cause pressure for 43.3 million student debt holders on pursuing other major purchases like housing, health, and automotive (Elverly). Our team is not proposing any sort of changes within government to move towards an agenda, but students who take on this debt need to know the responsibilities of taking on this debt.
Compiled by the Camelot Portfolios Investment Committee
Darren Munn, CFA, Chief Investment Officer
Sarah Berndt, Portfolio Manager
Eric Kartman, Research
Drew Steinman, CPA, Trader/Research
Frank Echelmeyer, MBA, CKA®, Advisor Consultant
-for Broker/Dealer and RIA use only-
Cheng, Evelyn. Deutsche Bank, U.S. DOJ Continue to Discuss Mortgage-Securities Settlement. 29 Sept 2016. 2016.
Deutsche Bank. 2Q16 Fixed Income Investor Conference Call. 28 July 2016. 2016.
Elverly, Joel. Is There a Student Loan Crisis? Not in Payments. 16 May 2016. 2016.
Nisiripour, Shahien. ITT Technical Institutes Shuts Down, Leaving a Hefty Bill. 6 September 2016. 2016.
Strasburg, Jenny. Deutsche Bank, U.S. DOJ Continue to Discuss Mortgage-Securities Settlement. 2 October 2016. 2016.
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