Camelot Portfolios Talking Points

Tis the Season for Online Retail?

For most Americans, the day after Thanksgiving is one of the optimum times to shop for the holidays. Historically, Black Friday and Cyber Monday drive traffic to retail stores and to websites. This year, online sales increased 15.2 percent year-over-year to an estimated $20 billion (Abramovich). While desktop devices still count for a large majority of online sales, figures for purchases on mobile devices increased 22.2 percent from last year (Abramovich). Web traffic increased 11.9 percent on major retail sites like Amazon and EBay (Abramovich).

Given the strong presence in the month of November, estimates for December online shopping continue to set records. According to Adobe Analytics, online revenue is estimated to surpass $100 billion by the end of December (Adobe). Forecast estimate 15.8 percent of sales are made between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday (Adobe). Overall conversion rate on Cyber Monday was 5% (Adobe). Search related traffic rose 41.7 percent year over year (Abramovich).

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 US GDP Continues to Expand

 As the holiday season is in full swing, the US economy accelerated this past quarter to 3.3 percent. This is the highest quarterly growth rate since Q3 2014 (Economics). This is above economist consensus estimate of 3 to 3.2 percent (Economics). To put this in perspective, the majority of developed countries are hovering between 1 and 2.5 percent (Economics). Even with major disasters hitting the gulf coast in September, early projections of business spending and consumption were solid. Key contributors to this quarter’s growth were consumption of durable goods adding .59 percent, nonresidential fixed investment adding .59 percent, and nonfarm inventories adding .72 percent (Economics). Key Detractors were residential fixed investment subtracting .20 percent and state/local investment subtracting .10 percent (Economics). The majority of GDP factors were positive contributors compared to the first two quarter of 2017 (Economics).

 Compiled by the Camelot Portfolios Investment Committee

Darren Munn, CFA, Chief Investment Officer

Paul Hoffmeister, Chief Economist

Drew Steinman, CPA, Trader/Research

Eric Kartman, Research Analyst

Zach Hartenburg, Trader/Analyst

Frank Echelmeyer, MBA, CKA®, Advisor Consultant

-for Broker/Dealer and RIA use only-

 

References

Abramovich, Giselle. "Mobile Conversions Hit New High Thanksgiving Thru Cyber Monday." 28 November 2017. CMO. 2017.

Adobe. Adobe Digital Insights. November 2017. 2017.

Economics, Trading. Trading Economics. May 2017. 2017.

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