A Race Against Time?

By Paul Hoffmeister

The 20% decline in the S&P 500 Index in the first quarter was the index’s worst first quarter performance in history, and its ninth worst calendar quarter performance ever. Most of the other major quarterly declines coincided with the Great Depression, the Black Monday crash of 1987, and the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis. Financially, the panic today is on par with some of the worst the country has ever seen. And on a personal level, too many Americans have died from this new virus, and the country is enduring a quarantine not experienced since 1918. We are, indeed, enduring a tragic moment in our country’s history.

While the S&P 500 was down -8.4% in February and then -12.5% in March, the sharp selloff in stock prices really began in late February when it became increasingly clear that the small clusters of Covid-19 infections outside of China had spread to the rest of the world. Quickly, the surreal images of ghost towns and overwhelmed hospitals in the city of Wuhan became a reality for almost everyone.

A forensic examination of the recent market selloff shows that the eruptions of Covid-19 infections in Italy, South Korea and Iran during the last week of February were arguably the catalyst for the recent panic selling in stocks, as the epidemic in Asia turned into a global pandemic. By late March, the White House’s leading medical advisors, Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, were warning publicly that between 100k and 2.2m Americans would die as a result of this new virus.[i] To put today’s tragedy into context, the total number of Americans killed in all U.S. wars has been approximately 1.1 million, according to PBS.[ii]

Of course, to slow the spread of the virus or “flatten the infection curve”, governments aroundthe world have issued travel restrictions and stay-at-home guidelines, which has come with great economic cost. As the Wall Street Journal’s Holman Jenkins put it, nearly 83% of the U.S. economy has been suppressed to relieve the pressure on the healthcare system.[iii]

How much has this virus and the global shutdown cost? Between December 31, 2019 and March 31, 2020, the market capitalization of the world’s equity markets fell $18.5 trillion to $68.5 trillion, according to the Bloomberg World Exchange Market Cap Index.

This massive and relatively sudden haircut in market wealth makes sense given the magnitude and velocity of the current economic slowdown and surge in unemployment. We are now bracing ourselves for a 20-30% contraction in US GDP, and just last week, an unprecedented 6.5 million Americans filed for unemployment. We expect these staggering job losses to continue while most of the US economy remains closed. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen believes that the true unemployment rate is already 12-13%.[iv]

The critical questions for investors are, what’s being done now to manage the pandemic and economic hardship, and will equity markets return to their previous highs anytime soon?

Aside from an aggressive effort to ensure the availability of healthcare equipment and therapies for the most stricken hot spots in the country, the federal policy response has been focused on providing temporary economic relief to individuals and corporations to weather the pandemic. The policy response has been politically down-the-middle, with a lot of temporary spending and credit measures.

The progressive left will be disappointed that no major, relatively permanent social safety net structures have been instituted (such as new broader, long-lasting federal healthcare programs), while the pro-growth right will be disappointed that no permanent improvements in economic incentives have been created (such as sharp tax rate reductions). This policy response is perhaps the only realistic outcome of a Republican-controlled White House and Democratically-controlled House.  

Notwithstanding, recent spending and credit programs have been massive. By the end of March, the White House and Congress approved the CARES Act, which will provide more than $2 trillion in economic relief -- the largest economic package ever passed by Congress. Included in the legislation are $1200 payments to most Americans, nearly $350 billion in partially forgivable loans to small businesses and non-profits, and $500 billion for the Treasury and Federal Reserve to provide liquidity and purchase corporate, municipal and state debt.[v] Reportedly, the Trump Administration is negotiating another $2 trillion dollar bill focused mainly on infrastructure spending.

In addition to these fiscal measures, the Federal Reserve among many other things slashed the federal funds rate from its 1.50%-1.75% target range to 0%-0.25% (we’re back to a zero interest rate policy or “ZIRP”), reduced the discount rate to 0.25% and attempted to destigmatize direct borrowing from the Fed, eased regulatory constraints to support lending to households and businesses, and established special facilities to steer credit directly to non-financial corporations.

In our view, the monetary policy response to the current economic crisis has been much faster and more aggressive than in 2008, and the Fed appears to be acting much more in the traditional fashion of a lender of last resort.

To be clear, the federal government’s fiscal and monetary measures today are arguably relief measures, as opposed to stimulus measures. They are policies to assist the broad economy in enduring the trillions of dollars in costs associated with Covid-19 shutdown. This will certainly help many individuals, and financial and non-financial institutions temporarily weather the crisis. But soon, if not already, the economy will need revenues restored.

This means that the economy and financial markets will either improve or devolve during the next few weeks and months based on the spread of Covid-19, the availability of therapeutic and preventative remedies, and the reopening of the economy. Quite simply, financial markets need the spread of the virus to slow, viral treatments to show clear and conclusive efficacy, and the economy to reopen.

Although there is a long way to go, there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel.

As of Tuesday April 7, China reported no new deaths, case numbers in European hotspots Italy and Spain were declining, and fatalities in New York appeared to be plateauing.[vi] As a result, we have seen lockdown restrictions lifted in Wuhan; Austria and Denmark plan to gradually lift restrictions next week; and while the U.S. still appears to be in the acceleration phase of infections, the White House is already crafting a plan to reopen the U.S. economy in the coming months.

As Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, said yesterday, “We are coming down, I think, the home stretch, that’s what the health experts are telling us.”[vii] Kudlow suggested that the economy will be begin to reopen within four to eight weeks.

A crucial step to reopening will be scaling up testing capabilities in order to better identify infected people and isolate them. Most likely, small towns that are far away from hotspots will be the first to reopen and implement extensive testing and viral surveillance programs. Undoubtedly, progress in therapeutic medicines and the widespread distribution of testing kits are critical today, for public health and the market outlook. Most parts of the economy will not be able to fully reopen without the necessary medical supplies and testing kits.

Defeating Covid-19 and reopening the economy couldn’t happen soon enough for markets. And perhaps the clearest case for that in financial markets is the credit market stress that currently exists. Credit spreads are “blowing out” faster than anything we’ve seen in recent history, and could be headed to 2008-2009 severity levels. There is a wave of corporate defaults on the horizon. The question is, will it be a size typical of periodic storms or a gigantic tsunami?

Given the nature of the federal policy response, which is mostly temporary and palliative, the economy may be in a race against time before either the previously believed once-in-a-multi-generation financial crisis of 2008-2009 happens again, or the federal government needs to step once more with additional capital to bear the burden of the massive economic cost of this pandemic.

How the next four to eight weeks play out is purely speculative. No one can forecast this kind of uncertainty. I am hopeful that human ingenuity will beat Covid-19. Sadly, it has cost the world dearly, in lives and treasure – so far nearly 90,000 deaths[viii] and tens of trillions of dollars. If the virus is not contained quickly and the economy does not reopen at least gradually, the federal government will need to step in again, quickly and aggressively. Unfortunately, we may only have a few weeks. Without question, we need the positive developments of the last week to continue. Evidence that the progress has temporarily stalled could mean the difference between a huge recovery rally and another bout of financial market panic.

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Paul Hoffmeister is chief economist and portfolio manager at Camelot Portfolios, managing partner of Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, and co-portfolio manager of Camelot Event-Driven Fund  (tickers: EVDIX, EVDAX).

*******

Disclosures:

•       Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.

•       This material is intended to be educational in nature, and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client.  These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice.  The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own.  Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors.  Camelot Portfolios LLC can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.

•       Any charts, graphs, or visual aids presented herein are intended to demonstrate concepts more fully discussed in the text of this brochure, and which cannot be fully explained without the assistance of a professional from Camelot Portfolios LLC.  Readers should not in any way interpret these visual aids as a device with which to ascertain investment decisions or an investment approach.  Only your professional adviser should interpret this information.

Some information in this presentation is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.

---

[i] “Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 U.S. coronavirus deaths ‘if we do things almost perfectly,’ by Ben Kesslen, March 30, 2020, NBC News.

[ii] “How many Americans have dies in U.S. wars?” by Megan Crigger and Laura Stanthanam, May 27, 2019, PBS.

[iii] “Questioning the Clampdown,” by Holman Jenkins, March 17, 2020, Wall Street Journal.

[iv] “Janet Yellen says second quarter GDP could decline by 30% and unemployment is already at 12-13%,” by Jeff Cox, April 6, 2020, CNBC.

[v] Source: www.whitehouse.gov

[vi] “Asian shares rise, echoing Wall Street optimism on virus battle,” by Yuri Kageyama, April 7, 2020, SFGate.

[vii] “Trump Team Preps Plans to Reopen Economy That Depend on Testing,” by Mario Parker, April 7, 2020, Bloomberg.

[viii] Source: Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.

B011

Special Market Update

Camelot Portfolios

 Dear Friends,

The 20% decline we mentioned in our update last week swiftly became a 30% decline as the panic and economic damage over the Coronavirus continued to intensify.  We have now seen 3 days in a row with roughly 10% moves in the equity markets, leaving us at fresh closing lows today (Monday 3/16/2020).  The 12% selloff came despite significant Fed action over the weekend – including an emergency rate cut of 100 bps and a new $700 Billion Quantitative Easing program.

 I have heard in many conversations with advisors and clients the belief that this is going to get much worse before it gets better.  While this is absolutely true about the Coronavirus, it may or may not be true about the markets.  The stock market is a forward-looking discounting mechanism and is well-aware that the virus & economic fallout will get much worse.  This is why the market fell roughly 20% in just the last week.  In addition, we are seeing panic selling & forced selling (margin calls), which push the market further down.

The concerns expressed in our last couple updates regarding the credit markets are now elevated as cracks are appearing in several places.  A full-blown credit crisis could easily take the market down another 20%.  The Fed is now throwing trillions of dollars at this situation to keep it from spiraling out of control and whether or not they will be successful remains to be seen.  

Based on suggestions and orders from the President and many Governors over the last several days to self-isolate & shut down businesses, I believe we are now in recession, and it is likely as severe as what we experienced during 2008.  The official recession will not be declared until late this year, but by then we will likely be coming out of it.  The market already knows this and is trying to price it appropriately, but the extent of the damage is impossible to quantify at this point.  This economic damage is what the government needs to address, and quickly.  We expect to see several aid bills in the coming weeks as politicians want to keep their jobs. 

These factors all make it difficult to know where the bottom may be in the markets.  We may have already hit it, but if so, I do not expect a V-bottom like we saw coming out of 2018.  I expect we will chop along for a few weeks with sharp bounces and falls as the market tries to digest the impact of this crisis.  Frankly, I am suspicious of the sharp rallies we are seeing as the VIX and credit markets don’t seem to be supporting the moves.  Either way, if there is further downside ahead of us, I believe it will come fairly quickly and will bottom before the peak of the Coronavirus crisis. 

Bottom line – we are likely near the bottom (within 20%), so investments made at this point will probably produce nice returns 12 months out.  But the economic damage is immense with more to come.  I am concerned it is not yet fully priced into the market, much less over-priced as often happens.  So the best opportunities may still be ahead of us.  I believe the best approach is to start/continue buying on pullbacks in the market.  If we see an opportunity to go all in, we will let you know. 

Kind Regards,

Darren Munn

Chief Investment Officer

Markets, the Coronavirus and Joe Biden

By Paul Hoffmeister

The week of February 24, 2020 will go down in history. The S&P 500’s 11.5% selloff for the week, caused by panic over the Coronavirus, was the fourth worst week-over-week loss for the index since 1970, just behind the week-over-week selloffs during the 2008 Financial Crisis, the October 1987 stock market crash, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

What appeared to spark the selloff were reports of viral outbreaks in Italy, South Korea and Iran. In Italy, it was reported that over 200 people had been infected, and at least 10 towns with a population of nearly 50,000 were locked down.[i] In South Korea, the total number of confirmed cases had jumped to more than 800, and the country raised its infectious disease alert to its highest level.[ii] And in Iran, total confirmed cases jumped to almost 50.[iii] The sudden case increases in these countries raised concern that the efforts to contain Covid-19 in Southeast Asia had failed, and that the world was now at the brink of a global pandemic.

Very likely, we’re already there. On Tuesday March 3,, Dr. Anne Schupat, the principal deputy director at the CDC, testified before Congress that the virus had already met two of the three main criteria under the technical designation of a pandemic.[iv] She added, “If sustained person-to-person spread in the community takes hold outside China, this will increase the likelihood that the WHO will deem it a global pandemic.”[v]

It may well be taking hold. Notably, on Wednesday February 26, the CDC reported in California the first incident in the United States of “community transmission” where an infected person was not exposed to anyone known to have been infected with the Coronavirus.[vi] The virus may in fact be more widespread than the official data is currently showing. With testing for the virus now rapidly increasing around the world, it’s likely that we will see a surge in confirmed cases that will meet the conditions for this outbreak to be classified as a global pandemic.

So, as investors, where do we go from here? How do we navigate a variable whose outcomes are highly uncertain and difficult to measure?

Arguably no one can guess how exactly the virus will evolve from here. That would be pure speculation. But perhaps the recent events in China can give us clues about how to think about the next few months, specifically with regard to the spread of the virus and the degree of any US equity selloff.

What may be exceedingly useful is the fact that it appears China is in the late innings of working through the virus, while the rest of the world is in the early innings. According to the World Health Organization, the Coronavirus is now spreading faster outside China. The number of confirmed cases outside mainland China exceeded 10,000 on March 3, compared to 80,300 in China; with 80% of new cases coming from Italy, Iran and South Korea.[vii]

If we use January 23, 2020 (when the Chinese government imposed a lockdown in many parts of Hubei Province) as the start date, then perhaps we can say that it took China 1.5 months, at most, to succeed in controlling the virus. 

Considering that China reportedly imposed extreme measures to contain the virus, including bounties, the utilization of its government surveillance apparatus, and widespread quarantines, it’s possible that the rest of the world will require at least 1.5 months to control the virus and slow its infection rate.

And what about US stocks? Will they crash more than they already have?

Between its high in mid-January to its low in early February, the Shanghai Composite sold off approximately 11.5% during its Coronavirus panic. And its rebound since then, has been fairly sustained. This is likely due to China’s success in containing the Coronavirus. It almost certainly helped, too, that the Chinese government implemented major monetary and fiscal policy measures, including interest rate cuts, the easing of loan terms to small and midsize businesses, and tax cuts.

It’s worth noting, as we mentioned last month, that we estimated the impact of SARS on the S&P 500 in 2002-2003 may have been as much as an 11% decline in the S&P 500.

These data points suggest that, with the S&P 500 -- as of March 3, 2020 -- being down nearly 11% from its highs, U.S. equities could find a bottom soon. I’m optimistic that it will, if it hasn’t already.

But, of course, this will likely be dependent on whether we see progress by authorities to contain the virus. Consequently, equity markets outside China during the near-term will likely be driven by headlines related to the containment and treatment of the virus.

Markets will also be reacting to any major, pro-growth economic measures; the exact features of which should determine the shape and slope of any market rebound, assuming the virus outside China is contained during the next couple months.

So far, the Federal Reserve has reduced the federal funds rate target by 50 basis points. Will it cut again soon? According to CBOE interest rate futures, the market is currently expecting nearly three more quarter point rate cuts by year-end. That’s ON TOP of the recent 50 basis points.

In addition to this monetary stimulus, will the White House and Congress work together to implement new tax cuts? If so, the exact tax cuts will mean everything. Will Larry Kudlow get the dream tax cut package that he and many other supply-siders have advocated for a long time: the indexation of capital gains for inflation? Or will any tax cut package be something more palatable to Democrats, such as a payroll tax cut or increased federal spending?

Economic Impact: Thinking about the Near-Term and Long-Term

Markets are suggesting that the economic cost of the Coronavirus will be massive. According to the Bloomberg Global Market Capitalization Index, global financial markets have lost nearly $10 trillion in value since their high in January, or nearly 11%. In my estimation, this may translate into a 50 basis point reduction in global GDP in 2020.

Notwithstanding the near-term GDP implications, the virus will likely have a major long-term impact on the global economic landscape, especially in accelerating the shift in supply chains away from China, as companies seek to diversify their suppliers and sources of material.

Also, the health crisis will likely mobilize more policymakers in Western countries to force certain manufacturing back into their home countries in the name of national security. While many headlines have highlighted potential supply disruptions in discretionary items such as electronics and household goods, other more non-discretionary goods are dangerously at risk of being in short supply in the West. For example, just yesterday, the Indian government restricted the export of 26 active pharmaceutical ingredients in an effort to stem possible drug shortages domestically.[viii] While many see the Coronavirus as something that we will get through, its implications will endure for many years to come.

Another Macro Implication from the Coronavirus: the November Election

Another macro implications to consider during this Coronavirus panic is whether it will have implications for the November elections. At one point last week, according to Rasmussen, President Trump suffered a 5-point drop in his approval rating (from 52% to 47%). This happened the day after his Wednesday February 26 press conference focused on the Coronavirus. Furthermore, for the week, between Monday February 24 and Friday February 28, the President’s reelection probability in Predictit betting markets declined from 59% to 55%. While President Trump remains the betting market favorite to win in November, there are clear indications that this virus poses a serious threat to his candidacy.

Meanwhile, the betting market on the Democratic presidential nominee is almost as erratic as stocks are these days. Today, the morning after the Super Tuesday primaries, Predictit bettors are giving Joe Biden a 77% chance of winning the nomination. Bernie Sanders’s chances have plummeted to 20%; a huge collapse from 60+% last month. It appears the turning point for Biden was his resounding win in the South Carolina primary as well as big surprise victories in Texas, Massachusetts and Minnesota. Clearly, the endorsements by Peter Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar prior to Super Tuesday helped consolidate the moderate Democratic vote behind Biden; while Elizabeth Warren’s decision to stay in the race split the progressive vote from Sanders. Given how deeply divided the Democratic Party has been between moderates and progressives, perhaps the obvious path to build a bridge between both wings would be a Biden-Warren ticket. Predicit betting markets, however, have Kamala Harris as the current odds-on favorite to win the VP nomination at 20%, with Warren at 12%.

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Paul Hoffmeister is chief economist and portfolio manager at Camelot Portfolios, managing partner of Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, and co-portfolio manager of  Camelot Event-Driven Fund  (tickers: EVDIX, EVDAX).

*******

Disclosures:

•       Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.

•       This material is intended to be educational in nature, and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client.  These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice.  The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own.  Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors.  Camelot Portfolios LLC can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.

•       Any charts, graphs, or visual aids presented herein are intended to demonstrate concepts more fully discussed in the text of this brochure, and which cannot be fully explained without the assistance of a professional from Camelot Portfolios LLC.  Readers should not in any way interpret these visual aids as a device with which to ascertain investment decisions or an investment approach.  Only your professional adviser should interpret this information.

Some information in this presentation is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified

---

[i] “Coronavirus: Italy reports 7 dead, 229 infected as Europe braces for COVID-19,” February 24, 2020, CNBC.

[ii] Ibid.

[iii] Ibid.

[iv] “Top CDC official tells Congress coronavirus almost qualifies as a global pandemic,” by Berkeley Lovelace Jr., March 3, 2020, CNBC.

[v] Ibid.

[vi] “In U.S. and Germany, Community Transmission Is Now Suspected,” February 26, 2020, New York Times.

[vii] “U.S. Coronavirus Infections Rise as Cases Outside China Pass 10,000,” by Jennifer Calfas and Jing Yang, March 3, 2020, Wall Street Journal.

[viii] “Europe ‘panicking’ over India’s pharmaceutical export curbs: industry group,” by Neha Dasgupta and Ludwig Burger, March 4, 2020, Reuters.

Coronavirus & Sanders: Jolt of Uncertainty

By Paul Hoffmeister

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CoronaVirus: All about Treatment and Containment

The market outlook became much cloudier in late January due to the uncertainty caused by the Coronavirus outbreak and the recent surge by Bernie Sanders.

To paraphrase Frank Knight, the early 20th century University of Chicago economist, “risk” applies to situations where we do not know the outcomes but can reasonably measure the odds; whereas “uncertainty” applies to situations where we simply do not have sufficient information to confidently measure the odds.

Within this framework, one can easily argue that the Coronavirus epidemic in China created a textbook case of uncertainty. Where did the virus come from? How deadly would it be? And, how far would it spread?  

On January 23, 2020 Chinese authorities expanded travel restrictions imposed on the city of Wuhan to surrounding municipalities, shut down travel networks, and attempted to quarantine 25 million people.[i] What was considered by many as an epidemic localized in Wuhan suddenly became a potential global pandemic, evoking memories of SARS and Ebola.

As of the time of this writing, Johns Hopkins estimates that more than 20,000 people have been infected in 27 countries, with 427 dead. And according to CNBC, at least 24 Chinese provinces, municipalities and regions have told businesses not to resume work until February 10.[ii] This shutdown in Chinese production is huge, as these parts of the country account for more than 80% of China’s GDP.[iii]

One can see that accurately measuring the consequences of the Coronavirus – in terms of human and economic costs – can be exceedingly difficult, especially if the virus were to spread much more. Therefore, it’s not surprising that January 23rd, when this relatively contained epidemic seemed to begin morphing into a potential global pandemic, marked the recent peak in the S&P 500. On a closing basis, the S&P 500 traded at 3325.54 on Thursday January 23, and fell 3% to a low of 3225.52 on Friday January 31.[iv] 

For some context for thinking about the market impact of a major, deadly viral outbreak, we estimate that the SARS and Ebola episodes in 2003 and 2004, respectively, led to approximately 5% to 11% selloffs in the S&P 500.

The histories of the SARS and Ebola outbreaks as well as what we’re currently seeing with the Coronavirus suggest that the key questions for markets are: will the respective outbreak be relatively contained, and will the symptoms be mostly treatable? In the Knightian sense, concrete answers to these questions can transform highly immeasurable “uncertainty” into much more quantifiable “risk”. And that may be what we have been seeing recently.

While the human and economic costs of the Coronavirus have been massive, recent information offer some hope that this crisis will be contained.

First, effective treatment strategies may be on the way. For example, in Thailand, doctors have reported success in treating severe cases with a combination of anti-flu and anti-HIV medications.[v] Thailand’s health ministry has reported that a previously positive testing 71-year old patient tested negative for the virus after starting the combination.[vi] This news appeared to break on Sunday February 2, and in our view, may have been the key factor behind the strength in the S&P 500 beginning the next day. Then, on February 5, Sky News reported that a British scientist made a breakthrough in the race for a vaccine, which could reduce the development time from two to three years to just 14 days.[vii] The news appeared to further support the strength in equities this week.

Secondly, measures to contain the outbreak have been drastic. As most of us have seen, travel into and out of Hubei province has mostly stopped, and travel into and out of China has been significantly restricted. This may be the world’s largest quarantine in history. Additionally, the New York Times has reported that Chinese officials are utilizing the country’s vast surveillance network to track down infected citizens, as well as those that may have been near them; and even offering bounties of 1,000 yuan for each infected Wuhan person reported by residents.[viii] [ix] Leaving democratic and privacy principles aside, it’s possible that these extreme measures may be what financial markets want to see as far as containment is concerned.

While it took months for the SARS and Ebola outbreaks to get under control, and this will likely be the case with the Coronavirus, the improving outlook for treatment and containment should encourage financial markets going forward. We will almost certainly see infection counts and death tolls continue to rise during the near-term. But as long as treatment and containment continue to be effective, the rates of infection and death should ultimately crest.

The Bernie Rally 

The political market is increasingly eventful these days, and should be so as the primetime of the Democratic primaries happens during the next 60 days.

The big news is: Mayor Peter Buttigieg surprised many with his victory-by-a-nose in the Iowa Caucus, and former Vice President Joe Biden’s prospects to secure the nomination have plummeted. According to the Predictit betting market, Biden was being priced on January 8, at a 43% probability to win the Democratic presidential nomination. As of February 4, he traded at 20%.

But the biggest news in the political arena is the ascension of Bernie Sanders to front-runner status. Between January 8 and February 4, his odds on Predictit of securing the nomination jumped from 32% to 39%, with a high of 46% on February 2.

Interestingly, the Bernie Rally seemed to ignite on January 24, after popular podcast host and UFC commentator Joe Rogan said on his podcast that he will “probably” vote for Sanders, after having interviewed him months ago.[x] The next day, Bernie’s Predictit odds jumped to a new high of 38% (from 34% on January 24), and his odds haven’t closed below 38% since. According to Slate, Rogan’s podcast was Apple Podcasts’ second most downloaded podcast in 2017 and 2018.[xi] Without a doubt, the landscape of political news and influencers has dramatically changed in recent years. 

The next two months may very well decide the Democratic nominee. New Hampshire is February 11, Nevada February 22, and South Carolina February 29. According to Predictit, the front-runners in each are, respectively, Sanders (at 83%), Sanders (66%), and Biden (60%).

Then “Super Tuesday” takes place on March 3, when nearly a third of all delegates are awarded; of which the biggest prizes are California and Texas with 415 and 228 delegates, respectively.[xii] Currently, Sanders is the front-runner in both states in the Predictit market.

January may turn out to be a major inflection point in the Democratic political market for the White House, with Sanders’s ascension and Biden’s plunge.

The consensus appears to be that President Trump is extremely pro-stock market, while Sanders may be the polar opposite. But what sectors will be most at-risk should Sanders win the general election in November? As we see it, Sanders could be especially negative for private prisons, gun manufacturers, student loan services, healthcare, private equity, and industries that benefit from a low minimum wage such as retail, leisure and hospitality.

We’ll likely see some movement or discounting in the stocks of these sectors during the coming months, especially if Sanders’s momentum continues. But, of course, one cannot easily assume Bernie Sanders will be president in 2021. Predictit is currently pricing in a 54% probability of a Republican winning in November; with Republicans likely keeping the Senate, and Democrats the House.

Paul Hoffmeister is chief economist and portfolio manager at Camelot Portfolios, managing partner of Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, and co-portfolio manager of Camelot Event-Driven Fund  (tickers: EVDIX, EVDAX).

*******

---

Disclosures:

•       Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.

•       This material is intended to be educational in nature, and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client.  These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice.  The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own.  Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors.  Camelot Portfolios LLC can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.

•       Any charts, graphs, or visual aids presented herein are intended to demonstrate concepts more fully discussed in the text of this brochure, and which cannot be fully explained without the assistance of a professional from Camelot Portfolios LLC.  Readers should not in any way interpret these visual aids as a device with which to ascertain investment decisions or an investment approach.  Only your professional adviser should interpret this information.

•       Some information in this presentation is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.

[i] “Chinese cities cancel New Year celebrations, travel ban widens in effort to stop coronavirus outbreak,” by Anna Fifield and Lean Sun, January 23, 2020, Washington Post.

[ii] “More than half of China extends shutdown over virus,” By Eveyln Chang, February 1, 2020, CNBC.

[iii] Ibid.

[iv] Source: Yahoo Finance.

[v] “Cocktail of flu, HIV drugs appears to help fight coronavirus: Thai doctors,” by Panu Wongcha-um, February 3, 2020, Reuters.

[vi] “Thailand Says New Drug Cocktail Successfully Treated Coronavirus in Chinese Patient in 48 Hours,” February 3, 2020, News18.com.

[vii] “British scientist makes breakthrough in race for coronavirus vaccine,” February 5, 2020, Reuters.

[viii] “China, Desperate to Stop Coronavirus, Turns Neighbor Against Neighbor,” by Paul Mozur, February 3, 2020, New York Times.

[ix] “China Sacrifices a Province to Save the World from Coronavirus,” by Claire Che, Dandan Li, Dong Lyu, Rachel Chang and Iain Marlow, February 4, 2020, Bloomberg News.

[x] “Podcast host Joe Rogan endorses Bernie Sanders,” January 24, 2020, Yahoo Finance.

[xi] “Joe Rogan’s Galaxy Brain,” by Justin Peters, March 21, 2019, Slate.

[xii] Source: New York Times

Thinking about 2020

By Paul Hoffmeister

With the charts in this month’s client letter, we try to put into perspective where stocks and bonds might be headed in 2020, and what factors may influence them. The general narrative of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield in recent years may be boiled down to this:

In 2017, the S&P 500 rallied in a relatively consistent fashion due primarily to the tailwinds of major deregulation and tax cuts. The rally was interrupted in 2018 in large part by concerns over the Fed raising interest rates too aggressively, and in small part by the onset of the US-China trade conflict. The major reversal in Fed policy in early 2019 was the major macro story and catalyst of the year, a Fed officials shifted from signaling in late 2018 the possibility of two or three rate increases during 2019 to actually reducing the funds rate three times. Negative news from US-China trade negotiations in 2019 briefly worried stocks, but not significantly. During the last four months of the year, we experienced what appeared to be a major confluence of positive developments: a phase 1 US-China trade deal, clarity in the UK political and Brexit outlooks, major Fed intervention in the repo market and signals that it might hold the funds rate steady for a prolonged period of time.

As for the 10-year Treasury yield, strong economic data and hawkish signals from the Fed throughout 2018 pushed the yield to as high as 3.23% by November of that year. But emerging evidence of slowing growth, weak equities and then ultimately a pivot in Fed interest rate policy led to a major decline in the 10-year yield in 2019. It ended the year at approximately 1.92%.

As we look forward, the tailwinds are arguably at the market’s back in early 2020, particularly if the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates this year (which we believe it likely), and remains more concerned about downside risks to the global economy.

As we see it, the US economy has downshifted into a lower gear compared to 2018. But we believe that growth should remain positive near a 1-2% annual growth rate. Although in August 2019, it appeared that the US economy was slowly drifting toward 0% GDP growth or less, the steepening of the yield curve since then has signaled that a recession during the next year is increasingly unlikely. Arguably, the strong employment environment is keeping the US out of recession. With the national unemployment rate at 3.5% as of November 2019, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, we would need to see unemployment rise to at least 4.0% for us to get worried about the economy falling into negative GDP growth.

As we see it, with so many positive tailwinds surprising markets in 2019 (dovish Fed interest rate policy and repo market interventions, a partial US-China trade deal, and Brexit clarity) leading to major equity market gains, it will be much harder for the S&P to replicate its 2019 returns this coming year. A 10%-12% return in the S&P 500 appears to be more likely. And if the Fed remains neutral in its rate policy outlook, the 10-year Treasury yield could end 2020 between 2.00% and 2.25%.

The biggest uncertainties of 2020 appear to be geopolitical and political. Will the US-Iran variable escalate significantly, following the killing of Quds Force Commander Qasem Suleimani? And who will win the US presidential election in November, and what party will control Congress?

I suspect we may have seen the climax in US-Iran tensions in the near-term, after their retaliation against US bases in Iraq on January 7th and, importantly, President Trump does not seem to be re-escalating. But, it’s worth considering worth case scenarios. Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 may be a useful precedent to review. In the months following the invasion, which of course led to a US-led coalition driving Hussein’s forces back toward Baghdad in January 1991, the S&P 500 fell almost 17%, gold rallied nearly 12%, and West Texas intermediate crude sky-rocketed almost 87%.  Within this context, major market risks certainly exist should the US and Iranian militaries engage in all-out conventional warfare.

As for the political outlook, President Trump’s prospects to be reelected have risen steeply in recent months. Based on the Predictit betting market as of January 6th, the President had a 48% probability of winning in November, compared to 40% on October 9th. It’s hard to ignore the correlation between impeachment efforts and Trump’s improving chances during the last 90 days. Perhaps this is evidence of impeachment blowback, which arguably happened to Republicans in November 1998 after the Clinton impeachment events. Interestingly, the Democratic frontrunners today are former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders. Senator Warren prospects have seemingly plummeted in recent months, after taking relentless heat for her Medicare For All plans. 

Neutral Fed policy may be the most important macro variable of 2020, which could allow stocks to continue drifting higher.

Neutral Fed policy could keep a “lid” on interest rates in 2020.

The inverting yield curve in summer 2019 suggested that the US economy was heading toward 0% GDP growth or less. The steepening curve since then is a relief.

Despite the steepening Treasury curve that may be signaling a lower probability of recession in the United States, the economy seems to be stuck in a lower gear at the moment. The heyday economy of 2017-2018 may have been squashed by higher interest rates and other major macro uncertainties, including the US-China trade row and Brexit concerns.

We aren’t worried about a recession occurring during the next year as long as the job market remains strong. Based on the Sahm Recession Indicator, we’d start getting worried if we saw the national unemployment rate jump to at least 4%, from the recent 3.5% level.

How much downside in the S&P 500 would there be if the United States and Iran engaged in an all-out conventional war? Impossible to predict. But the nearly 17% decline in the stock index in 1990 may be a useful precedent to consider.

Gold jumped nearly 12% as geopolitical uncertainty skyrocketed after Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait and a US-led military coalition was being assembled for war.

Oil seems to have had one of the most pronounced price reactions to the invasion of Kuwait and the lead-up to the first Iraq War.

Will President Trump be re-elected? According to Predictit betting markets, Trump is the clear front-runner to win the 2020 presidential election. Biden and Sanders are in a distant second and third place, respectively.

Paul Hoffmeister is chief economist and portfolio manager at Camelot Portfolios, managing partner of Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, and co-portfolio manager of Camelot Event-Driven Fund  (tickers: EVDIX, EVDAX).

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Disclosures:

•       Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.

•       This material is intended to be educational in nature, and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client.  These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice.  The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own.  Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors.  Camelot Portfolios LLC can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.

•       Any charts, graphs, or visual aids presented herein are intended to demonstrate concepts more fully discussed in the text of this brochure, and which cannot be fully explained without the assistance of a professional from Camelot Portfolios LLC.  Readers should not in any way interpret these visual aids as a device with which to ascertain investment decisions or an investment approach.  Only your professional adviser should interpret this information.

•       Some information in this presentation is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.