Straight of Hormuz: Supply Shock

by Paul Hoffmeister, Portfolio Manager and Chief Economist

Viewed through the lens of the Strait of Hormuz, the recent conflict with Iran is not simply a regional conflict, but a global macroeconomic shock transmitted through a single, critical chokepoint. 

According to the Joint Maritime Information Centre, an average of 138 ships usually pass through the Strait every day. But Bloomberg data indicates that since the onset of the military conflict on February 28th, the number of tankers has fallen to less than 10 per day, and even zero on some days. 

The Strait concentrates an outsized share of the world’s oil and LNG flows among many other vital resources including chemical products, fertilizers, helium and aluminum. As a result of this recent supply shock, a rapid and broad-based repricing has occurred across energy markets, inflation expectations, growth forecasts, and financial assets. 

One of the most obvious and immediate effects has been on the price of oil. Its forward price curve has shifted upward, reflecting not only supply tightness but a sustained geopolitical risk premium tied to the disruption in the Strait. This has already translated into higher gasoline prices, reinforcing a direct transmission channel from geopolitics to the consumer. According to AAA, the national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has jumped from approximately $2.98 in late February to more than $4.10 today. In economic terms, this price increase functions as a tax: it raises input costs across industries while eroding real household purchasing power. 

From this vantage point, the broader implications for inflation and growth can be seen. Inflation expectations have moved meaningfully higher. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a market-based measure of expected average inflation over the next 5 years, has increased from approximately 2.45% in late February to nearly 2.65% today.  The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast suggests that CPI inflation will increase approximately 3.6% during the next year, whereas in February, it was expecting a 2.4% increase. Importantly, this is not simply a reaction to current price levels; it represents a repricing of the forward inflation path, driven by the recognition that natural resource supply risk is now structurally elevated. 

At the same time, growth expectations have deteriorated. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast shows that real GDP growth decelerated from nearly 3.0% in late February to 1.3% currently. The St. Louis Fed Economic News Index suggests that real GDP is currently growing at 2%, from almost 3% in February. 

The measurable drag on economic activity indicated by high-frequency GDP trackers such as these likely reflects both direct effects, such as higher costs and reduced real income, and second-order effects, including weaker business and consumer confidence. Yet the data stops short of signaling an outright recession. Instead, it points to an economy that is slowing but still expanding. 

This combination of rising inflation alongside weakening growth defines the current environment. It is not a demand-driven overheating cycle, but a supply-driven stagflationary impulse, originating from the risks embedded in the Strait of Hormuz. That dynamic is now shaping monetary policy expectations. Markets have adjusted their views on the path of the Federal Reserve, as reflected in shifts in implied year-end policy rates. In February, markets were expecting two quarter point rate cuts as the most likely scenario by year-end; now, markets appear to believe that no rate cuts are the most likely outcome.

The Fed faces a complex tradeoff in their policy formulation: tighten policy to contain inflation risks and amplify the growth slowdown; or ease and risk entrenching higher inflation. 

Fixed income markets reflect some of this tension. Treasury yields, particularly at the long end, have been volatile as investors reassess both inflation risks and the appropriate term premium in a more uncertain environment. The 10-year Treasury yield has notably jumped from less than 4% in late February to more than 4.33% today. 

Equity markets, meanwhile, have exhibited significant dispersion rather than uniform decline. According to Bloomberg, industry-level performance between late February and early April shows a pattern consistent with this new inflation and growth regime: many energy-linked and defensive industries outperformed, while more cyclical and rate-sensitive areas lagged. This suggests that investors were not pricing an imminent recession, but rather a shift toward slower growth, higher inflation, and greater volatility. 

An important overlay to all of this is the role of expectations. Prediction markets and other forward-looking indicators show a sharp rise in perceived recession risk, even as hard data has yet to confirm it. This may highlight a feature of modern markets: expectations adjust faster than fundamentals, and those expectations themselves can influence financial conditions and economic behavior. 

In sum, the resource supply shock out of the Strait of Hormuz can be an organizing framework for understanding the current macroeconomic environment. A localized geopolitical risk has cascaded through energy markets into inflation, through inflation into policy uncertainty, and through policy into financial conditions and asset prices. The economy now sits in a more fragile equilibrium: growth is slowing but intact, inflation is rising, and the range of potential outcomes has widened. What has changed most is not just the level of key variables, but the distribution of risks, all of which now trace back, directly or indirectly, to the vulnerability embedded in that narrow passage of water. 

Paul Hoffmeister is Chief Economist and Portfolio Manager at Camelot Portfolios, managing partner of Camelot Event-Driven Advisors (CEDA), and co-portfolio manager of the Camelot Event-Driven Fund (EVDIX • EVDAX).

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All investing carries with it risk, including the risk of loss, that investors should be prepared to bear.  This material is for educational use only and is not intended to be construed as investment advice.   Readers or participants in an oral presentation of these materials should consult with their own personal financial, tax, legal and other advisors before making any decision to make any investment, including any investment believed to be related to the topics of these materials.  The discussion herein, while based on current economic data, may or may not lead to the outcomes presented, express or implied. Economic conditions, even in a single sector, are subject to an unknown number of variables, the totality of which are impossible to predict or account for in analytical assumptions.   Past performance does not necessarily lead to future results.  Specifically, trends in economic data do not always, and frequently do not, continue as expected.  B727
Copyright © 2026 Camelot Event-Driven Advisors LLC, All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2026 Camelot Portfolios LLC, All rights reserved.

Cracks in Labor Market

by Paul Hoffmeister, Portfolio Manager and Chief Economist

Last Friday, the nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that cracks in the labor market are starting to appear. Specifically, only 22,000 jobs were created in August; this compared to about 168,000 per month in 2024. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, up from a cycle low of 3.5% during Q3 2022. Excluding the Covid pandemic, job growth last month was the lowest since 2010. Although nearly 31,000 jobs were added in the health care sector, job losses occurred in information, business services, financial activities, manufacturing and the federal government sectors. Then on Tuesday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the number of workers on payrolls for the twelve months ended March 2025 will likely be revised lower by over 900,000. The news further makes the case that the labor market is slowing meaningfully. 

Despite concerns among some policymakers about inflation, the recent employment data strongly suggests that the general perception of the balance of economic risks is now weighted toward a cooling economy than worsening inflation. As a result, financial markets are pricing an almost certain probability of a rate cut at the FOMC’s next meeting on September 17, according to the CME’s FedWatch monitor. For markets today, the question seems to be not whether there will be a rate cut, but how large will it be? As of last Friday, markets were pricing in almost a 90% chance of a quarter-point cut, and 10% chance of a ‘jumbo’ 50 basis point cut.

For investors, the employment environment is important because it has historically correlated with equity indices and corporate earnings. A weakening job market indicates weakening economic momentum. And, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, consumer spending makes up approximately two-thirds of the US economy. Therefore, when job growth stalls and unemployment rises, income insecurity among US households increases, which in turn reduces consumption and business sales/profits. Ultimately, corporate stock valuations can suffer.

If history is any guide, a critical variable that will impact US equity markets during the coming year will be how the labor market continues to evolve. Last week’s nonfarm payrolls report suggests a loss of momentum in hiring. Fortunately, the economy is not yet experiencing a sustained reduction of jobs each month. Instead, the payrolls report is suggesting that there’s simply little hiring and no major, widespread layoffs as of yet. And as the labor market experiences this slowdown, markets expect the Fed to act next week with its own monetary stimulus to prevent things from getting much worse.

Paul Hoffmeister is Chief Economist and Portfolio Manager at Camelot Portfolios, managing partner of Camelot Event-Driven Advisors (CEDA), and co-portfolio manager of the Camelot Event-Driven Fund (EVDIX • EVDAX).

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Disclosures:
•       Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.
•       This material is intended to be educational in nature, and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client.  These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice.  The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own.  Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors.  Camelot Event Driven Advisors can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.
•       Any charts, graphs, or visual aids presented herein are intended to demonstrate concepts more fully discussed in the text of this brochure, and which cannot be fully explained without the assistance of a professional from Camelot Portfolios LLC.  Readers should not in any way interpret these visual aids as a device with which to ascertain investment decisions or an investment approach.  Only your professional adviser should interpret this information.
•       Some information in this presentation is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.
•       Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC, is registered as an investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any certain degree of skill or training. Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC’s disclosure document, ADV Firm Brochure is available at http://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/291798

Copyright © 2025 Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, All rights reserved.

Stagflation Dilemma

by Paul Hoffmeister, Portfolio Manager and Chief Economist

The FOMC met on July 29-30 and voted in favor of keeping the fed funds target range at 4.25-4.5%, making the fifth consecutive pause in interest rate adjustments. The Fed hasn’t cut rates at all this year, which is in sharp contrast to the 100 basis points in cuts between September and December of last year. At one point last fall, financial markets, indicated by December 2025 fed funds futures, were expecting almost a 3% funds rate by the end of this year.

The Fed’s reluctance to reduce interest rates has clearly sparked the ire of President Trump, who is demanding fast and aggressive rate cuts. The President has nicknamed Chairman Powell “Too Late” and called him a “stubborn moron” and “numbskull”. In his view, the funds rate is at least 3 percentage points too high. The President’s criticism arguably reflects many voters, as recent Gallup surveys show that only 37% of Americans have confidence in the Fed Chairman. [1]

Based on the flat yield curve today and assuming that the long end of the curve would stay at current levels, an immediate cut of 300 basis points to the funds rate would make Fed policy as aggressively dovish as it was after the tech bubble burst (2001-2002) and the Global Financial Crisis (2009-2010). 

Powell, for his part, is in an exceedingly difficult position, and the Fed is facing an almost impossible dilemma. Both sides of the interest rate debate seemingly have a compelling argument. 

On the one hand, doves argue some variation of the following: the flat Treasury curve and the 2-year Treasury yield (almost 60bps lower than fed funds) are screaming that the Fed is too tight; the labor market is softening (Sahm Rule has been tripped, slowdown in job growth, rising unemployment claims, declining job openings); manufacturing has been contracting for most of the last 3 years (<50 ISM Manufacturing Index); and the services sector is on the verge of contraction (50.1 ISM Services Index for July). 

On the other hand, rate hawks point to the strength in the equity markets, corporate profits, gold prices, and household net worth; along with high consumer prices and the official unemployment rate of 4.2%.

In our view, the ISM Services PMI data for July sums up the debate and dilemma. This relatively real-time data basically shows an emergent stagflation of rising inflation and weakening employment. Last month, the survey’s employment index fell to 46.4%, the fourth contraction in five months and lowest level since March. Meanwhile, the prices paid index jumped to 69.9%, the highest level since October 2022. With the service sector making up approximately three-quarters of the economy, the softening job growth and intensifying cost pressures are a worrisome trend. 

Complicating matters, tariffs may be worsening the inflation outlook. A recent Federal Reserve Board working paper concluded that the China tariffs increased core-goods PCE prices by nearly 0.3 percentage points. Boston Fed research concluded that the President’s plan to impose 10% tariffs on China and 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada would increase core PCE by 0.8 percentage points. And, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee recently suggested that tariffs could raise inflation between 0.5 and 0.8 points, depending on how much those costs pass through businesses.

Muddying waters even more may be Fed credibility. It’s possible that some Fed members are inclined to cut interest rates but are concerned at the same time of being seen as caving to political pressure. Or, conversely, they could be reluctant to cut rates because of supposedly missing or failing to extinguish the inflation of 2022, where year-over-year core PCE jumped to 5.5% from 1% in 2020. These are psychological factors that may be almost impossible to accurately assess.

Fed policymaking might be an unenviable job these days. Unfortunately, these are the countless variables that factor into monetary policy decision-making when policymakers operate within a discretionary rather than rules-based system. 

Notwithstanding the nature of the modern monetary regime, today’s policy debate and growing stagflation pressures, the policy bias at the Fed today is increasingly dovish. Not only did two FOMC members favor cutting rates in the last meeting, but President Trump has nominated his CEA Chairman Stephen Miran, a known dove, to the Fed Board of Governors. This has helped to push the December 2025 fed funds futures to expecting almost two quarter-point rate cuts by year-end. 

If anything, Fed policy is ever so slowly moving in the direction of what market-based indicators such as the yield curve and 2-year Treasury are apparently demanding. And so, monetary policy will likely continue to evolve gradually unless extremes emerge in the future, whether it be economic or inflationary, demand more rapid action.

__________

[1] “Public Views of the Fed Chair Are Polarized as Trump Mulls His Firing”, by Ruth Igielnik, July 16, 2025, New York Times.

Paul Hoffmeister is Chief Economist and Portfolio Manager at Camelot Portfolios, managing partner of Camelot Event-Driven Advisors (CEDA), and co-portfolio manager of the Camelot Event-Driven Fund (EVDIX • EVDAX).

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Disclosures:
•       Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.
•       This material is intended to be educational in nature, and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client.  These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice.  The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own.  Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors.  Camelot Event Driven Advisors can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.
•       Any charts, graphs, or visual aids presented herein are intended to demonstrate concepts more fully discussed in the text of this brochure, and which cannot be fully explained without the assistance of a professional from Camelot Portfolios LLC.  Readers should not in any way interpret these visual aids as a device with which to ascertain investment decisions or an investment approach.  Only your professional adviser should interpret this information.
•       Some information in this presentation is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.
•       Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC, is registered as an investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any certain degree of skill or training. Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC’s disclosure document, ADV Firm Brochure is available at http://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/291798

Copyright © 2025 Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, All rights reserved.

Looking For Trade Deals

by Paul Hoffmeister, Portfolio Manager and Chief Economist

The S&P 500 is up nearly 25% since April 9 when President Trump announced in his now-famous Truth Social post that it was a “…great time to buy!!!” Less than four hours later, the President revealed a 90-day pause on the increased reciprocal tariffs that he unveiled the previous week while leaving in place a 10% baseline tariff. Of course, stocks sold off during the first week of April after those country-specific tariffs (some as high as 50%) were announced. The about-face after one week calmed panicked markets and set the stage for the recent, massive rally.

Some could easily forget that in his April 9 post the President imposed a 125% tariff on Chinese imports into the United States, while other countries were given the temporary reprieve. But concerns about US-China trade relations were eased on May 12 after negotiations in Geneva led the United States and China to reduce for 90 days their import tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectively, while further negotiations were held. That news helped catalyze the second leg higher in the recent stock market recovery. Helping matters further, on June 11, the President posted on Truth Social: "Our deal with China is done, subject to final approval from President Xi and me."

Equity markets seem to be very pleased these days, as the S&P 500 makes record highs. Not only have significant tariffs been avoided, but the President signed into law major tax reform on July 4. 

As we explained last month, the latest budget bill is imperfect from a supply-side, pro-growth perspective as it needed to be scored budget-neutral within reconciliation rules and compromises were required between pro-growth and austerian wings of the GOP. Notwithstanding, the bill has important growth-stimulative components, such as permanently lower tax thresholds (which were passed in 2018 and scheduled to expire in 2026) and 100% bonus deprecation rules. 

If any pro-growthers want another chance at reducing taxes on businesses and capital (such as lower corporate and capital gains taxes), then they’ll need to make a stronger case to the country and win stronger electoral mandates in the future. This could be similarly said for austerians, such as Elon Musk, who want to see more done to keep federal spending under control. For his part, Musk has filed documents with the FEC to form a new political party.  

The near-term market focus will likely now shift to the expiring tariff-related deadlines. The initial 90-day pause is set to expire on July 9, and the China-specific pause expires on August 14. 

It’s unlikely that tariffs will be reinstituted as early as July 9. On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Bessent explained on CNN that letters were being sent to trading partners outlining the Administration’s trade and tariff expectations, and that country-specific tariffs will revert on August 1 to their April 2 levels if deals weren’t reached. Effectively, there seems to be a three-week extension during what seem to be final deal-making stages. Commerce Secretary Lutnick added on Sunday that "…the president is setting the rates and the deals right now."

As for a US-China trade deal, Chinese officials seemingly downplayed notions of a “done deal” in June. At the time, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce characterized the outcome of those meetings as a “framework” to implement the general agreement reached in May. The agreement includes access to magnets and rare earth minerals for the United States, and chip design software and jet engine components for China. According to the Wall Street Journal, both countries are thus far easing some of their respective export controls. 

In general, the trade-related news appears constructive but not yet definitive. Arguably, the absence, for now, of sky-high tariffs and retaliatory tariff walls being erected around the world have relieved equity markets and allowed them to set new highs. 

Just as importantly, there seems to be a growing perception that the White House wants to avoid another market panic like the first week of April.  After all, there was the policy about-face on April 9; the notable absence of public comments from the Administration’s leading trade hawks, and more market-friendly tariff messaging from the likes of Secretaries Bessent and Lutnick; as well as the latest tariff deadline extension to August 1. 

This strongly suggests that the Administration is working to smooth the transition to a new, comprehensive trade regime. But the market is waiting on a lot of new trade deals. Thus far, the United States has reached agreements with the UK and Vietnam. Big deals yet to be finalized include China, the European Union, Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea and India. 

Given the stock market’s recent reaction function, deal completions should be favorable and create more follow-through to the upside. The near-term outlook appears constructive. But a lot of optimism seems to be priced into risk assets today and a host of deals are yet to be reached, which could create short-term choppiness.

Paul Hoffmeister is Chief Economist and Portfolio Manager at Camelot Portfolios, managing partner of Camelot Event-Driven Advisors (CEDA), and co-portfolio manager of the Camelot Event-Driven Fund (EVDIX • EVDAX).

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Disclosures:
•       Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.
•       This material is intended to be educational in nature, and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client.  These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice.  The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own.  Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors.  Camelot Event Driven Advisors can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.
•       Any charts, graphs, or visual aids presented herein are intended to demonstrate concepts more fully discussed in the text of this brochure, and which cannot be fully explained without the assistance of a professional from Camelot Portfolios LLC.  Readers should not in any way interpret these visual aids as a device with which to ascertain investment decisions or an investment approach.  Only your professional adviser should interpret this information.
•       Some information in this presentation is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.
•       Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC, is registered as an investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any certain degree of skill or training. Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC’s disclosure document, ADV Firm Brochure is available at http://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/291798

Copyright © 2025 Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, All rights reserved.

President Trump’s Market Calls

by Paul Hoffmeister, Portfolio Manager and Chief Economist

The theme that we’ve been emphasizing this year is that policy volatility is likely to lead to market volatility, and last month was a prime or even historic example. Of course, on April 2nd otherwise known as “Liberation Day”, President Trump announced a series of tariff measures, including universal 10% tariffs on all imports (except Canada and Mexico) and additional country-specific tariffs against 60 countries. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite subsequently fell nearly -12% and -13%, respectively, between April 2 and April 9. The equity market panic evoked memories of Smoot Hawley and the 1929-1930 stock market selloff. 

Then, on April 9 at 9:37am ET, President Trump posted on Truth Social, “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT”. This marked almost the exact bottom in stocks, and since then the major US equity indices have reversed much of their post-April 2nd declines. The S&P 500, for its part, posted its longest winning streak in 20 years. The shift in narrative from the White House during the last month is obvious, shifting from signaling that “tariffs are going up” to “trade deals are going to be worked out”. 

The first meaningful trade deal announced so far has been between the United States and the UK. According to Bloomberg, the deal will fast track American goods through UK customs, reduce barriers on agricultural, chemical, energy and industrial exports, and increase market access for American beef, ethanol and other products. For the UK, the deal will enable UK manufacturers to annually export a hundred thousand automobiles to the United States at a 10% tariff instead of the 27.5% tariff that Trump recently threatened. According to President Trump, the deal will establish a baseline 10% tariff (from 3.4%), reduce UK tariffs from 5.1% to 1.8%, generate expected tariff revenues for the US of $6 billion, and boost certain US exports by $5 billion. 

This deal may also create a framework for deals with other countries, with the US clearly looking to maintain a universal 10% tariff on imports with few exceptions and indeed create an external revenue source, as well as reduce foreign trade barriers (by reducing foreign tariffs and increasing market access). While during the first week of April it looked like the US was going to play hardball and trade negotiations were going to be prolonged and contentious, markets seem to be much more positive about the outlook for trade negotiations. Another positive development in recent weeks is the fact that there have not been significant retaliations from trading partners.

Notwithstanding, this is only the first major trade deal; and holding all other variables constant, additional deals will likely be needed to substantiate the market’s current optimism and propel equities to pre-Liberation Day levels. The big trade deal would of course be with China. On Thursday, President Trump said that he wouldn’t be surprised if such deal were reached. If that happened and US-China tensions eased, equity indices could test their 2025 highs. 

Notably, President Trump said on Thursday May 8, “You better go buy stock now. Let me tell you. This country will be like a rocket ship that goes straight up.” Is the President making another bold market call like he did on April 9? 

At the moment, the economy is “holding up” reasonably well. Even though real GDP contracted -0.3% in Q1 quarter-over-quarter, this was mainly caused by a jump in imports (seemingly due to front-running the Trump tariffs) and slightly less government spending. Meanwhile, the labor market continues to be resilient. Even more, S&P 500 earnings for Q1 have increased 12.8% compared to the first quarter of 2024, according to John Butters of FactSet. [1] This creates a good footing for the current equity environment.

Of course, along with trade negotiations vis a vis China and other countries, there are other major macro variables in play, especially related to taxes, geopolitics and the Fed, which will in large part determine whether the President’s recent comments turn out to be accurate. Congress is expected to finalize the Trump tax cut extensions by the July 4th recess; the geopolitical outlook is uncertain and requires clarity; and the Fed appears to be staying firm with current interest rate levels until the tariff outlook is clearer. Policy volatility remains, and so does the potential for more market volatility, both to the upside and downside. 

[1] Source: Investors Business Daily, S&P 500: 5 Stocks Absolutely Crush Analysts' Profit Forecasts | Investor's Business Daily

Paul Hoffmeister is Chief Economist and Portfolio Manager at Camelot Portfolios, managing partner of Camelot Event-Driven Advisors (CEDA), and co-portfolio manager of the Camelot Event-Driven Fund (EVDIX • EVDAX).

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Disclosures:
•       Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.
•       This material is intended to be educational in nature, and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client.  These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice.  The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own.  Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors.  Camelot Event Driven Advisors can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.
•       Any charts, graphs, or visual aids presented herein are intended to demonstrate concepts more fully discussed in the text of this brochure, and which cannot be fully explained without the assistance of a professional from Camelot Portfolios LLC.  Readers should not in any way interpret these visual aids as a device with which to ascertain investment decisions or an investment approach.  Only your professional adviser should interpret this information.
•       Some information in this presentation is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.
•       Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC, is registered as an investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any certain degree of skill or training. Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC’s disclosure document, ADV Firm Brochure is available at http://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/291798

Copyright © 2025 Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, All rights reserved.